Landscape Contractor / Design Build Maintain

DEC 2018

LC/DBM provides landscape contractors with Educational, Imaginative and Practical information about their business, their employees, their machines and their projects.

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12 LC DBM Review & Forecast 2018-19 By Mike Dahl, LC/DBM Real GDP: Percent Change From Preceding Quarter 5 4 3 2 1 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4* Q1-4* Q4 Q4 Q4 2014 2017 2018 2019 2016 2015 The Big Picture Kiplinger, publisher of business forecasts and finance advice, predicts the U.S. GDP will only grow in the mid-2% range in the 4th quarter of this year after two strong gains of 4.2% (Q2) and 3.5% (Q3) - adding up to overall GDP growth of 2.9% for 2018. They are also expecting 2019's GDP to show a smaller gain of 2.7%. Last year, IBISWorld, a supplier of business information and market research, said that their evaluation of the landscaping industry puts its continuing ten-year growth through 2022 at an annualized rate of 3.4%. This year they continue with an optimistic outlook, stating, "steady growth in the housing market will encourage demand for industry services." As for the housing market, the Home Buying Institute predicted that in spite of home prices' continued upward trend - Zillow forecasted a 6.5% rise from July of this year to July 2019 - and modest mortgage rate increases, the steady demand for homes will probably not be stifled. In the non-residential category, Dodge Data and Analytics most recent report hints that the "commercial building sector is approaching a peak and should begin to gradually ease back over the coming year," but the industrial sec - tor "has been relatively more stable due to the availability of public funds for projects such as schools and airport terminals." Housing Statistics Building Permits The latest numbers for single-family housing units authorized by building permits are up 5.7% over the same period last year. Authorizations for residences with five or more units are about even with their year ago rate, and the demand for multifamily units remains strong according to the Wells Fargo Economics Group. Global eco - nomics research and forecasting firm Trading Economics is predicting a drop in total permits of about 1.7% in the next 12 months but then an increase of almost 6% in 2020. **Seasonally adjusted annual rate for last reporting period ^ Trading Economics' forecast *Kiplinger's forecast 2016 2019 2015 2018 2017 Housing Units in Thousands 1,241 ^ 1,182 1,190 1,263** 1,320

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